UN Report Sounds Alarm: Global Temperatures Poised to Surge by 2.5-2.9°C
New Delhi: Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions surged by 1.2% in the past year, reaching a record high, as revealed in the latest UN Environment Programmed emission gap report released on Monday. The report cautioned that even if all current pledges under the Paris Agreement are fulfilled by 2030, the world is on track to experience a temperature rise of 2.5°-2.9°C above pre-industrial levels this century.
Examining historical emissions, the report disclosed that while the United States constitutes 4% of the current global population, it contributed to 17% of global warming from 1850 to 2021. In contrast, India, representing 18% of the world population, contributed only 5% to the warming during this period.
Released ahead of the UN climate conference (COP28), the report emphasized the urgent need for increased climate action to avert the devastating consequences of climate change resulting from the current temperature rise trajectory. If the current trend persists, emissions in 2030 will exceed the 1.5°C limit by 22 gigatonnes, equivalent to the combined annual emissions of the USA, China, and the European Union (27 nations).
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed disappointment with the findings, describing it as a failure of leadership and a betrayal of the vulnerable. He noted that even in the most optimistic scenario, the likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5°C is only 14%. The report highlighted a significant gap between rhetoric and reality, stating that net-zero emission pledges are not currently considered credible, and none of the G20 countries are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net-zero targets.
The top seven global emitters remain unchanged from 2021, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the EU, Russia, and the US. Although emissions across the G20 increased by 1.2% in 2022, per capita emissions vary significantly, with Russia and the US having more than double the world average.
Guterres stressed that the world could still achieve the 1.5°C limit if leaders address fossil fuels, which he identified as the “poisoned root of the climate crisis.” He called on leaders at COP28 to ensure that concrete actions are taken.
Scientific institutions have reported consistently rising emissions, resulting in record-breaking temperatures each month. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) highlighted November 17 as the first day when the average global temperature exceeded 2°C above the pre-industrial level. While the WMO clarified that this doesn’t mean the world has breached the Paris Agreement levels, it serves as a warning about the urgency of climate action leading up to COP28.
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